Time to panic?

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Vonz90
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Time to panic?

Postby Vonz90 » Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:03 pm


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Re: Time to panic?

Postby Greg » Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:42 am

The answer is one I don't really like, but is nevertheless obvious.

Those people didn't so much vote Republican, as vote Trump. And the Republican establishment that continues to fight to undermine Trump at every turn (including the NeverTrumpers we talked about) are doing an excellent job of chasing away new voters that Trump brought in.

Good work.
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Re: Time to panic?

Postby Vonz90 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:26 pm

Greg wrote:The answer is one I don't really like, but is nevertheless obvious.

Those people didn't so much vote Republican, as vote Trump. And the Republican establishment that continues to fight to undermine Trump at every turn (including the NeverTrumpers we talked about) are doing an excellent job of chasing away new voters that Trump brought in.

Good work.


I do not think it has much to do with the NeverTrumpers, at least in any significant way. Rather, I think it is much closer to the Obama dynamic. He is a leader much more concerned with his himself than building a party, that works in terms of personal popularity but that popularity comes at the cost of most of the rest of party. Obama brought a lot of "new" people to the polls for the Dems, more than were alienated by him. They did not show up when he was not on the ballet. This is expanded of course because we have a very hostile press (not helped by POTUS seemingly obsessed with stepping on his own d*ck in as public a way as possible as often as possible).

Trump got about the same total votes as Romney (+/-), he was not very popular in the first place net/net. He just happened to be running against a candidate who was genetically engineered to be the worst possible one in history.

There is time, and the tax cuts (hooray GOP congress!) and such may mitigate things, but I am worried. I think Trump with a Dem congress is a very different animal than Trump with a GOP congress.
Last edited by Vonz90 on Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Time to panic?

Postby Rod » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:10 pm

A reminder, this is primary season. Give it a month THEN maybe starting to talk panic. I'm sitting in Texas where, Beto O'Rourke, the pot smoking, drunk driving Democrat (neither of which is surprising) outspent Cruz in the primaries. Cruz didn't even mention the asshole in his campaign ads. People are all atwitter, including Limbaugh about Texas going at least purple, if not blue. Before the votes were even counted, Cruz went on the attack and blasted Beto for his stance on immigration. Beto doesn't have an endless war chest while Cruz hasn't spent that much money yet. This is pretty much what's happening across the country.
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Re: Time to panic?

Postby Weetabix » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:50 pm

Rod wrote:A reminder, this is primary season. Give it a month THEN maybe starting to talk panic.

I'm with Rod. I never had great faith in polls, and even that tenuous faith has eroded mightily of late.
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Re: Time to panic?

Postby Vonz90 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:56 pm

Weetabix wrote:
Rod wrote:A reminder, this is primary season. Give it a month THEN maybe starting to talk panic.

I'm with Rod. I never had great faith in polls, and even that tenuous faith has eroded mightily of late.


The polls are one thing, the results in special elections have been abysmal, even in very solid GOP districts.
Last edited by Vonz90 on Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:17 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Time to panic?

Postby g-man » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:15 pm

Rod wrote:A reminder, this is primary season. Give it a month THEN maybe starting to talk panic. I'm sitting in Texas where, Beto O'Rourke, the pot smoking, drunk driving Democrat (neither of which is surprising) outspent Cruz in the primaries. Cruz didn't even mention the asshole in his campaign ads. People are all atwitter, including Limbaugh about Texas going at least purple, if not blue. Before the votes were even counted, Cruz went on the attack and blasted Beto for his stance on immigration. Beto doesn't have an endless war chest while Cruz hasn't spent that much money yet. This is pretty much what's happening across the country.


Looking at the results in TX, I noticed a trend: In most of the districts, more people voted (by a factor of 2-10 depending on district) for the GOP primary winner than voted for all (D) candidates combined. I'm not worried about TX going purple.
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Re: Time to panic?

Postby Langenator » Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:30 am

g-man wrote:
Rod wrote:A reminder, this is primary season. Give it a month THEN maybe starting to talk panic. I'm sitting in Texas where, Beto O'Rourke, the pot smoking, drunk driving Democrat (neither of which is surprising) outspent Cruz in the primaries. Cruz didn't even mention the asshole in his campaign ads. People are all atwitter, including Limbaugh about Texas going at least purple, if not blue. Before the votes were even counted, Cruz went on the attack and blasted Beto for his stance on immigration. Beto doesn't have an endless war chest while Cruz hasn't spent that much money yet. This is pretty much what's happening across the country.


Looking at the results in TX, I noticed a trend: In most of the districts, more people voted (by a factor of 2-10 depending on district) for the GOP primary winner than voted for all (D) candidates combined. I'm not worried about TX going purple.


This was the case with Ted Cruz, and he was running unopposed.

And folks, not to be a grammar nazi, but the correct spelling is 'polls.' Poles hold up tents, or get danced upon by young women with daddy issues.
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Re: Time to panic?

Postby John_in_Longview » Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:55 am

Langenator wrote:This was the case with Ted Cruz, and he was running unopposed.


Actually, there were four people running against him in the Republican primary. Here are the results:

Cruz 1,317,450(85.3%)
Miller 94,451(6.1%)
Jacobson Jr 64,604(4.2%)
De Stefano 44,327(2.9%)
Sam 22,842(1.5%)

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Re: Time to panic?

Postby Greg » Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:44 pm

Just to add.....

You all here are aware of how the Republican establishment shits on its own base. We gripe about it all the time, but we're used to it and anyway, where are we going to go.

Now imagine you were a tentative new R voter, and you notice the R establishment seems to like to shit on its own voters. You. WTF do you need this for, you can get that at home? (At least over there they sweeten the deal with other people's money. Oh fuck a duck, I just figured out 'Compassionate Conservatism'.)
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Re: Time to panic?

Postby Vonz90 » Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:16 pm

Langenator wrote:
g-man wrote:And folks, not to be a grammar nazi, but the correct spelling is 'polls.' Poles hold up tents, or get danced upon by young women with daddy issues.


Occupational hazard of working in the electrical industry. I type "poles" way more than "polls"

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Re: Time to panic?

Postby Netpackrat » Fri Mar 09, 2018 12:58 am

Vonz90 wrote:
Langenator wrote:
g-man wrote:And folks, not to be a grammar nazi, but the correct spelling is 'polls.' Poles hold up tents, or get danced upon by young women with daddy issues.


Occupational hazard of working in the electrical industry. I type "poles" way more than "polls"


One is for oppressing, the other is for suppressing.... :mrgreen:
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Re: Time to panic?

Postby Langenator » Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:21 am

Greg wrote:Just to add.....

You all here are aware of how the Republican establishment shits on its own base. We gripe about it all the time, but we're used to it and anyway, where are we going to go.


Years ago, when I had a blog (it's still there - Heartless Libertarian - but I haven't posted in years, and I can't get in anymore), I made the observation that the GOP treats gun owners the same way the Democrats treat blacks - by taking them for granted, paying lip service at election time, and largely ignoring them otherwise.

The fact that bills for CCW reciprocity and removing suppressors from the NFA not only were introducing, but actually moved, however slightly, is a least a step forward.
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Re: Time to panic?

Postby Greg » Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:41 am

Langenator wrote:
Greg wrote:Just to add.....

You all here are aware of how the Republican establishment shits on its own base. We gripe about it all the time, but we're used to it and anyway, where are we going to go.


Years ago, when I had a blog (it's still there - Heartless Libertarian - but I haven't posted in years, and I can't get in anymore), I made the observation that the GOP treats gun owners the same way the Democrats treat blacks - by taking them for granted, paying lip service at election time, and largely ignoring them otherwise.

The fact that bills for CCW reciprocity and removing suppressors from the NFA not only were introducing, but actually moved, however slightly, is a least a step forward.


The Dems don't call blacks names in public, to the media. Plus they get free shit.

HOW many ostensible R elected officials have gone to the media to badmouth their own voters in the past year or two?

R voters get treated much, much worse.
Maybe we're just jaded, but your villainy is not particularly impressive. -Ennesby

If you know what you're doing, you're not learning anything. -Unknown
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Re: Time to panic?

Postby Vonz90 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:55 pm

Greg wrote:
Langenator wrote:
Greg wrote:Just to add.....

You all here are aware of how the Republican establishment shits on its own base. We gripe about it all the time, but we're used to it and anyway, where are we going to go.


Years ago, when I had a blog (it's still there - Heartless Libertarian - but I haven't posted in years, and I can't get in anymore), I made the observation that the GOP treats gun owners the same way the Democrats treat blacks - by taking them for granted, paying lip service at election time, and largely ignoring them otherwise.

The fact that bills for CCW reciprocity and removing suppressors from the NFA not only were introducing, but actually moved, however slightly, is a least a step forward.


The Dems don't call blacks names in public, to the media. Plus they get free shit.

HOW many ostensible R elected officials have gone to the media to badmouth their own voters in the past year or two?

R voters get treated much, much worse.


There are a lot of rewards for nominal GOP'ers (or Dems calling themselves a GOP'er) to badmouth the right to the media. So it happens.

There are at some times and places rewards and advantages for Dems to switch over parties and badmouth the Dems. (Famously Sunny Purdue's switch in Georgia, but others). However, the media does not play that much unless they absolutely cannot ignore it. Even then, it is always treated as a local phenomena and not a national event.

In general, the Dems have better vocal discipline (the media typically helps edit it too). But there are many many cases of the left giving their supposedly core constituencies the back of their hand over and over again. Think union manufacturing jobs / mining; all working class wights, all working class / poor who have to compete with illegal and legal immigrants for jobs (and get their wages suppressed). Etc. Etc.

In the meantime, another datum: https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/03/ ... ania-race/
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