The Gun Counter

Netpackrat wrote:Honestly the way things are going these days, a lot of current silencer manufacturers are not going to be in business in 1-2 years, let alone 4-5.

I live under a large rock. What's going on, and why will they be out of business?

Weetabix wrote:I live under a large rock. What's going on, and why will they be out of business?

Silencer sales have dropped off nearly completely, because two federal bills would make it easier, quicker and cheaper to buy sound suppressors, Martinez said. One of the bills is sponsored by Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho.

Many people in the industry thought one of the bills would pass in the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency. That prompted would-be silencer buyers to wait for its passage before buying, Martinez said.

However, Martinez said there are not enough votes in the Senate to pass either bill. If either survives, passage will take years, he said.

Some silencer companies have laid off half their workers in recent months due to a “perfect storm” of the bills and plummeting gun sales, he said. GemTech has not, in part because it sells silencers to 24 countries and makes steady sales to military and law-enforcement customers.

Although to be fair, it isn't just because people are waiting for the HPA to pass before buying... The can makers all ramped up production in a big way in the last year or two in response to the pre-41F buying frenzy. The sales slump began after the new rules went into effect, and Trump getting elected just made it worse.

On top of that, there's been a lot of churn in the suppressor industry in the last few years. As a 20-year suppressor owner, it's been interesting to watch. The real grenade just got dropped...the new scannable Form 4, which should cut processing time significantly.

So, let me see if I have this straight:
1. Silencers before NFA: $5 or so in a bucket at the hardware store.
2. NFA happens: nobody buys silencers because why pay $200 to get a $5 item.
3. Time passes, and people rediscover the fun of shooting with silencers.
4. Gov decides to get nastier, so people try to buy lots while the getting is less bad.
5. Silencer companies hire up a bit too heavily and build a bit too many.
6. Other part of .gov tries to suppress (heh) nastier .gov.
7. Market collapses because a) price was based on previous .gov produced price distortion, and b) consumers put on the brakes to wait for Item 6 to bring price back to $5 price level in 2017 dollars. (if it, in fact, happens)

Is that about right?

Even if that's not quite right, I'm still adamantly opposed to government screwing up markets based on teh feelz and a desire to control people.

Weetabix wrote:

Netpackrat wrote:Honestly the way things are going these days, a lot of current silencer manufacturers are not going to be in business in 1-2 years, let alone 4-5.

I live under a large rock. What's going on, and why will they be out of business?

41f happened, and HPA was introduced. Which means that anybody who was thinking about buying a silencer, went out and boight all they thought they would ever need in order to avoid the new regs concerning trusts (41f), which was compounded by the hearing protection act which means that anybody who ddidnt panic buy during the 41f frenzy, is now holding off to see if the Hearing Protection act passes. Right now, NOBODY is buying cans, and the dealers/manufacturers are starting to get a bit desperate, which is why there are starting to be some good deals on them(at least compared to prices from before 41f - if the hpa passes, which i seriously doubt, the market will fall out on current manufacturers as sikencers become a commodity item

Update on the LaRue small and large frame complete upper sales. They just opened up sale of their own lowers, one per upper purchased. LaRue lowers have been difficult to buy (either someone letting one go or buy a whole rifle for quite a few years). So you can now build a 100% LaRue rifle in either size.

Even the premium makers are having to adapt to the market glut and slowdown in sales.

HTRN wrote:if the hpa passes, which i seriously doubt, the market will fall out on current manufacturers as sikencers become a commodity item

I disagree slightly with this. If HPA passes, a lot of people are going to order silencers right away from whoever has them in stock, which means the established manufacturers will see a short term boost in sales until everybody and their brother with machine tools gets in on the act. The market is going to move quickly to lower end, less expensive cans since it will no longer be a purchase you expect to last for the rest of your life, but with more people buying more cans period, I don't think the sales of the current style of "bulletproof" heavy duty cans will really go down, and they may increase slightly in absolute numbers even as their market share plummets. There's just going to be more cans of all quality levels at all price points, period.

If it passes I think they will still have to have an FFL manufacturing permit to sell but home bulids should be legal a la 80% lowers etc.