Trent Telenko, over at the Chicago Boyz blog, has done some great research on the topic.
Probably the two most relevant posts are these two:
Happy VJ-Day, Plus 72 Years
History Weekend: Revisiting “Atomic Diplomacy,” the “Million Casualty Lie,” and Casualty Planning for the Invasion of Japan
BLUF:
- There is no evidence in the historical record to support the "Atomic Diplomacy" narrative
- The "Million Casualty Myth" was, in fact a lie (or at least an obfuscation), but in the opposite direction from what the Leftist claim. The actual estimated casualties, based initially on casualties suffered in the Saipan operation, later revised and refined after Iwo Jima and Okinawa, were approximately 2.3 million dead, wounded, and missing for OLYMPIC, CORONET, and post-CORONET operations. (Note that this means the War Dept OPD had those figures as early as mid- to late summer 1944; those figures were a key part of the decision to abort Adm. King's preferred invasion of Formosa in favor of MacArthur's landings in the Philippines.)
Marshall kept the actual casualty estimates from Truman (using 'best case' estimates, based on MacArthur's much lower casualty ratios in New Guiniea and the Philippines, instead) out of fear that Truman wouldn't approve the invasion if he saw the actual estimates.
Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda
Last edited by Langenator on Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda
I know the plans also didn't have the invading divisions past the 3rd day or so since they figured they would be annihilated. If the bomb wasn't used and the public found out about it... Truman would have been impeached.Langenator wrote:Trent Telenko, over at the Chicago Boyz blog, has done some great research on the topic.
Probably the two most relevant posts are these two:
Happy VJ-Day, Plus 72 Years
History Weekend: Revisiting “Atomic Diplomacy,” the “Million Casualty Lie,” and Casualty Planning for the Invasion of Japan
BLUF:
- There is no evidence in the historical record to support the "Atomic Diplomacy" narrative
- The "Million Casualty Myth" was, in fact a lie (or at least an obfuscation), but in the opposite direction from what the Leftist claim. The actual estimated casualties, based initially on casualties suffered in the Saipan operation, later revised and refined after Iwo Jima and Okinawa, were approximately 2.3 million dead, wounded, and missing for OLYMPIC, CORONET, and post-CORONET operations. (Note that this means the War Dept OPD had those figures as early as mid- to late summer 1944; those figures were a key part of the decision to abort Adm. King's preferred invasion of Formosa in favor of MacArthur's landings in the Philippines.)
Marshall kept the actual casualty estimates from Truman (using 'best case' estimates, based on MacArthur's much lower casualty ratios in New Guiniea and the Philippines, instead) out of fear that Truman wouldn't approve the invasion if he saw the actual estimates.
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda
I seem to recall reading that the Purple Heart medals made up in anticipation of the invasion of the Japanese home islands were still being handed out in the early days of Desert Storm. Not sure how true that is, but it is believable.
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda
They probably still have some in stock.First Shirt wrote:I seem to recall reading that the Purple Heart medals made up in anticipation of the invasion of the Japanese home islands were still being handed out in the early days of Desert Storm. Not sure how true that is, but it is believable.
From the sounds of things, they were still using them in 2010.
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda
To play a bit of devil's advocate... for the pope.... is there anything to his message here other than war is bad? The timing is poor and the message is obvious but it does not seem to be inherently bad.
As for hypothetical invasions of mainland Japan I have seen some very strong arguments that they never would have happened due to the expected casualties. Instead the US would have simply starved/bombed/shelled the Japanese into either surrender or the complete destruction of their society followed by death via starvation for most of those left.
As for hypothetical invasions of mainland Japan I have seen some very strong arguments that they never would have happened due to the expected casualties. Instead the US would have simply starved/bombed/shelled the Japanese into either surrender or the complete destruction of their society followed by death via starvation for most of those left.
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda
From a strategic standpoint, that would have been smarter than invasion.
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda
A. They were going to invade; They were almost ready to start it.skb12172 wrote:From a strategic standpoint, that would have been smarter than invasion.
B. Since the Soviets had become involved, waiting would just had more influence to them.
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda
My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.Kommander wrote:To play a bit of devil's advocate... for the pope.... is there anything to his message here other than war is bad? The timing is poor and the message is obvious but it does not seem to be inherently bad.
-Neville Chamberlain
“War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things: the decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth a war, is much worse. When a people are used as mere human instruments for firing cannon or thrusting bayonets, in the service and for the selfish purposes of a master, such war degrades a people. A war to protect other human beings against tyrannical injustice; a war to give victory to their own ideas of right and good, and which is their own war, carried on for an honest purpose by their free choice, — is often the means of their regeneration. A man who has nothing which he is willing to fight for, nothing which he cares more about than he does about his personal safety, is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free, unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself. As long as justice and injustice have not terminated their ever-renewing fight for ascendancy in the affairs of mankind, human beings must be willing, when need is, to do battle for the one against the other.”
-John Stuart Mill
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda
If that was his message, there are a host of other images, for wars that were much more morally ambiguous...dead Russians at Port Arthur, the Rape of Nanking, both sides in the Iran-Iraq War, mass graves of Bosnia, the ruins of Grozny. Or even dead Argentinian soldiers in the Falklands.Kommander wrote:To play a bit of devil's advocate... for the pope.... is there anything to his message here other than war is bad? The timing is poor and the message is obvious but it does not seem to be inherently bad.
That's actually what the pre-war ORANGE plans called for - economic strangulation by close blockade. But those plans assumed that the Japanese would behave in a more "rational" manner. (For Western definitions of 'rational'.) That they'd give up when it was obvious that they had lost. After two years of fighting across the Pacific, against resistance that became more fanatical with each step closer to Japan, that assumption was deemed invalid.Kommander wrote:As for hypothetical invasions of mainland Japan I have seen some very strong arguments that they never would have happened due to the expected casualties. Instead the US would have simply starved/bombed/shelled the Japanese into either surrender or the complete destruction of their society followed by death via starvation for most of those left.
As far as invasion vs blockade, I think politically it would have been a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation. By late 1945, the American public wanted the war to be over. I don't think there would have been much patience for the costs (and seeming inaction) of a long, drawn out blockade. OTOH, once the casualty figures for the Kyushu landings came in, the public would have been appalled. (And, as Telenko points out in one of the links above, Marshall had deliberately hidden the true casualty projections from Truman, because knew Truman wouldn't approve such a costly operation.)
There would, as has also been noted, have been the politically complicating factor of the Soviets. Stalin and Stavka had planned to land on Hokaido on 23 Aug 1945, almost two months before OLYMPIC. Stalin called off the landings on 22 Aug 1945 after the surrender message was broadcast. The Soviet landings probably would have been fairly successful, too, because the Japanese were preparing (quite well, too, because they'd had 3 years to watch us, and they knew the kinds of places we liked to land, under what tidal/weather conditions - they had pinpointed the exact landing beaches MacArthur planned to use, and the week of the landings) for the U.S. landing on Kyushu. So the Japanese wouldn't have had much to oppose the Soviets.
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda
As for the blockade idea, what would have happened to the Allied POWs in Japan?
If there is a Stairway to Heaven, is there an Escalator to Hell?
If God wanted men to play soccer, he wouldn’t have given us arms. - Mike Ditka
If God wanted men to play soccer, he wouldn’t have given us arms. - Mike Ditka