Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda

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Langenator
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda

Post by Langenator »

Trent Telenko, over at the Chicago Boyz blog, has done some great research on the topic.

Probably the two most relevant posts are these two:

Happy VJ-Day, Plus 72 Years

History Weekend: Revisiting “Atomic Diplomacy,” the “Million Casualty Lie,” and Casualty Planning for the Invasion of Japan

BLUF:
- There is no evidence in the historical record to support the "Atomic Diplomacy" narrative

- The "Million Casualty Myth" was, in fact a lie (or at least an obfuscation), but in the opposite direction from what the Leftist claim. The actual estimated casualties, based initially on casualties suffered in the Saipan operation, later revised and refined after Iwo Jima and Okinawa, were approximately 2.3 million dead, wounded, and missing for OLYMPIC, CORONET, and post-CORONET operations. (Note that this means the War Dept OPD had those figures as early as mid- to late summer 1944; those figures were a key part of the decision to abort Adm. King's preferred invasion of Formosa in favor of MacArthur's landings in the Philippines.)

Marshall kept the actual casualty estimates from Truman (using 'best case' estimates, based on MacArthur's much lower casualty ratios in New Guiniea and the Philippines, instead) out of fear that Truman wouldn't approve the invasion if he saw the actual estimates.
Last edited by Langenator on Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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scipioafricanus
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda

Post by scipioafricanus »

Langenator wrote:Trent Telenko, over at the Chicago Boyz blog, has done some great research on the topic.

Probably the two most relevant posts are these two:

Happy VJ-Day, Plus 72 Years

History Weekend: Revisiting “Atomic Diplomacy,” the “Million Casualty Lie,” and Casualty Planning for the Invasion of Japan

BLUF:
- There is no evidence in the historical record to support the "Atomic Diplomacy" narrative

- The "Million Casualty Myth" was, in fact a lie (or at least an obfuscation), but in the opposite direction from what the Leftist claim. The actual estimated casualties, based initially on casualties suffered in the Saipan operation, later revised and refined after Iwo Jima and Okinawa, were approximately 2.3 million dead, wounded, and missing for OLYMPIC, CORONET, and post-CORONET operations. (Note that this means the War Dept OPD had those figures as early as mid- to late summer 1944; those figures were a key part of the decision to abort Adm. King's preferred invasion of Formosa in favor of MacArthur's landings in the Philippines.)

Marshall kept the actual casualty estimates from Truman (using 'best case' estimates, based on MacArthur's much lower casualty ratios in New Guiniea and the Philippines, instead) out of fear that Truman wouldn't approve the invasion if he saw the actual estimates.
I know the plans also didn't have the invading divisions past the 3rd day or so since they figured they would be annihilated. If the bomb wasn't used and the public found out about it... Truman would have been impeached.
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First Shirt
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda

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I seem to recall reading that the Purple Heart medals made up in anticipation of the invasion of the Japanese home islands were still being handed out in the early days of Desert Storm. Not sure how true that is, but it is believable.
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Jered
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda

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First Shirt wrote:I seem to recall reading that the Purple Heart medals made up in anticipation of the invasion of the Japanese home islands were still being handed out in the early days of Desert Storm. Not sure how true that is, but it is believable.
They probably still have some in stock.

From the sounds of things, they were still using them in 2010.
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda

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To play a bit of devil's advocate... for the pope.... is there anything to his message here other than war is bad? The timing is poor and the message is obvious but it does not seem to be inherently bad.

As for hypothetical invasions of mainland Japan I have seen some very strong arguments that they never would have happened due to the expected casualties. Instead the US would have simply starved/bombed/shelled the Japanese into either surrender or the complete destruction of their society followed by death via starvation for most of those left.
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skb12172
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda

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From a strategic standpoint, that would have been smarter than invasion.
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda

Post by Vonz90 »

skb12172 wrote:From a strategic standpoint, that would have been smarter than invasion.
A. They were going to invade; They were almost ready to start it.

B. Since the Soviets had become involved, waiting would just had more influence to them.
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Jered
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda

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Kommander wrote:To play a bit of devil's advocate... for the pope.... is there anything to his message here other than war is bad? The timing is poor and the message is obvious but it does not seem to be inherently bad.
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Langenator
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda

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Kommander wrote:To play a bit of devil's advocate... for the pope.... is there anything to his message here other than war is bad? The timing is poor and the message is obvious but it does not seem to be inherently bad.
If that was his message, there are a host of other images, for wars that were much more morally ambiguous...dead Russians at Port Arthur, the Rape of Nanking, both sides in the Iran-Iraq War, mass graves of Bosnia, the ruins of Grozny. Or even dead Argentinian soldiers in the Falklands.
Kommander wrote:As for hypothetical invasions of mainland Japan I have seen some very strong arguments that they never would have happened due to the expected casualties. Instead the US would have simply starved/bombed/shelled the Japanese into either surrender or the complete destruction of their society followed by death via starvation for most of those left.
That's actually what the pre-war ORANGE plans called for - economic strangulation by close blockade. But those plans assumed that the Japanese would behave in a more "rational" manner. (For Western definitions of 'rational'.) That they'd give up when it was obvious that they had lost. After two years of fighting across the Pacific, against resistance that became more fanatical with each step closer to Japan, that assumption was deemed invalid.

As far as invasion vs blockade, I think politically it would have been a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation. By late 1945, the American public wanted the war to be over. I don't think there would have been much patience for the costs (and seeming inaction) of a long, drawn out blockade. OTOH, once the casualty figures for the Kyushu landings came in, the public would have been appalled. (And, as Telenko points out in one of the links above, Marshall had deliberately hidden the true casualty projections from Truman, because knew Truman wouldn't approve such a costly operation.)

There would, as has also been noted, have been the politically complicating factor of the Soviets. Stalin and Stavka had planned to land on Hokaido on 23 Aug 1945, almost two months before OLYMPIC. Stalin called off the landings on 22 Aug 1945 after the surrender message was broadcast. The Soviet landings probably would have been fairly successful, too, because the Japanese were preparing (quite well, too, because they'd had 3 years to watch us, and they knew the kinds of places we liked to land, under what tidal/weather conditions - they had pinpointed the exact landing beaches MacArthur planned to use, and the week of the landings) for the U.S. landing on Kyushu. So the Japanese wouldn't have had much to oppose the Soviets.
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scipioafricanus
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Re: Pope Frances uses picture of Nagasaki Victim for propaganda

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As for the blockade idea, what would have happened to the Allied POWs in Japan?
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