20 to 1

[D5CAV]

Speaking of tin-foil-hatted conspiracy theories, I had a discussion at the gun range last weekend with a guy who is convinced that the UN was going to impose martial law on the US. I pointed out that the state of Wisconsin issues hunting licenses to more hunters every year than the total US Armed Forces combined.

However I didn't have this ratio to add to my argument: 20 to 1. That is an interesting ratio. It is the estimate of number of soldiers/law-enforcement required per "insurgent".

https://straightlinelogic.com/2016/07/1 ... bert-gore/

Some good stuff here:

The capital is an overflowing cesspool; the Clintons being the most visible and malodorous turds floating by on that river of filth.

It gets better:

But, never underestimate the stupidity of the aristocrats. Let’s say the US government descended into full-on totalitarianism. This is the same government that couldn’t subdue Vietnamese in Vietnam, Afghans in Afghanistan, Iraqis in Iraq, Syrians in Syria, Libyans in Libya, or Yemenis in Yemen. Nevertheless, it will attempt to subdue Americans in America, who collectively are far better armed (thank you, NRA) than any of the insurgencies in those other countries.

And, of course, the simple, but inconvenient arithmetic, with that daunting ratio of 20 to 1:

Of course, many Americans are sheep so the resistance would be a subset, but the daunting math of fighting insurgents on their own territory, according to military expert Richard Maybury, is about 20 military personnel for each domestic guerrilla fighter. So even if only a million US insurgents resist, probably a low estimate, it would require 20 million government personnel to suppress them, not to mention what would be necessary to maintain order should any collateral chaos and violence, including racial and ethnic animosities, erupt. Currently, there are a little over 2 million active and reserve personnel in the military, and about 1.1 million in law enforcement, and some of both are administrative personnel who would not participate in suppression or combat. The government is stockpiling weaponry, but where does it find at least 17 million recruits to pull the triggers and drive the MRAPS, and with what will it pay them?

[Precision]

the math is probably correct.

Two things that were left out.

Collaborators will greatly increase the numbers on the side of the military and police. Probably at least a doubling

That will be mostly offset by having no more then 50% of the military and police being willing to participate on the tyranical side. Many will actively resist.

[g-man]

That will be mostly offset by having no more then 50% of the military and police being willing to participate on the tyranical side. Many will actively resist.

This. In. Spades.

And I'd argue that the ratio is at least 20:1 for those military and police who side up with freedom. As Dallas highlighted, even a reservist engineer was able to take out 5 officers, wound 7 others (and 2 civilians), and pin down hundreds. Not knocking the Reserves or Engineers, just noting the level of small-arms and tactics training he would have gotten based on his MOS, vice an 11B or 19D, for example. Martial law would NOT go well.

[randy]

Collaborators will greatly increase the numbers on the side of the military and police. Probably at least a doubling

A lot of those will be opportunists that will change sides in a heartbeat if it looks like the statists are losing.

Especially if it comes to the point that supporting the statists is riskier and with lower benefits (money, power, etc) than the resistance.

[Weetabix]

And I'd argue that the ratio is at least 20:1 for those military and police who side up with freedom.

I don't know about that ratio. Given the way the military has been purged and given all the federal training local police forces have received, I'd bet it's more like 1:20 would side with freedom. The State has been working quite a while to get their minions into the "correct" groupthink.

[g-man]

The ratio describes the number of boots on the ground one needs to overcome an insurgency. I argue above that it would require more boots per insurgent (30:1, maybe more) given that some of the insurgents would be legit 'trained killers', vs the pick-up game variety normally encountered elsewhere in the world. And I agree with Precision's assessment that <50% of the military would side with the statists.

[MarkD]

The ratio describes the number of boots on the ground one needs to overcome an insurgency. I argue above that it would require more boots per insurgent (30:1, maybe more) given that some of the insurgents would be legit 'trained killers', vs the pick-up game variety normally encountered elsewhere in the world. And I agree with Precision's assessment that <50% of the military would side with the statists.

Probably less than half the military would side with the statists, IF they were told what was happening, which they wouldn't be. It would be sold to the ranks as a rebellion against legitimate authority, with the full agreement of the political officer corps.

I also suspect most cops would go along with the statists, or anyone else who will ensure they're more equal than the other animals. Certainly all the police departments in the big cities would go along.

[PawPaw]

I've been hearing a lot about martial law from the tin-foil hat brigade hereabouts. It's just that, tin foil hat material.

Even in martial law, civil officers still exist, and many of them in the latitudes below Washington, and in those longitudes west of the Mississippi would begin active resistance. They Do Not Want To Play That Game.

[g-man]

At least from my foxhole, there is a LOT of 'not saying shit on social media' going on right now. I agree that there are plenty of GO-level folks beyond help as it regards being lashed to the political mast. But among the CGO / FGO crowd I know, there is a lot of tongue biting. I try to walk the fine line here, but it's really difficult.

[Precision]

At least from my foxhole, there is a LOT of 'not saying shit on social media' going on right now. I agree that there are plenty of GO-level folks beyond help as it regards being lashed to the political mast. But among the CGO / FGO crowd I know, there is a lot of tongue biting. I try to walk the fine line here, but it's really difficult.

Agreed. I have friends (ok 2 delusional people) what are very tight lipped while they serve, for fear of what might come out of their mouth. I also talk to lots of military guys at work. When they know it won't get back to higher ups, many are very anti-statist and quite aware of what is going on. Very Oathkeeper in sentiment. Admittedly they are the gun owning members of the military, but....