California raises minimum wage to $15/hour

[Aesop]

There's nothing deep there, it's simply "Rules for thee, and not for me".
They won't get it, BTW, but they will see the Detroitification of most of California as a direct result.

There's also no guarantee this won't hit the CA ballot initiatives anyways eventually - to repeal the law the Dumocrat legislature passed.

And I haven't read the new law, but minimum wage is minimum wage - unions can't bargain for work at less than the minimum.
If anything, the state getting everyone $15/hr undercuts union efforts to organize low-budget workers, because the union leeches can't get them anything the state didn't just give them for free, in return for $0 in union dues extorted from their sparse checks.

[Vonz90]

There's nothing deep there, it's simply "Rules for thee, and not for me".
They won't get it, BTW, but they will see the Detroitification of most of California as a direct result.

There's also no guarantee this won't hit the CA ballot initiatives anyways eventually - to repeal the law the Dumocrat legislature passed.

And I haven't read the new law, but minimum wage is minimum wage - unions can't bargain for work at less than the minimum.
If anything, the state getting everyone $15/hr undercuts union efforts to organize low-budget workers, because the union leeches can't get them anything the state didn't just give them for free, in return for $0 in union dues extorted from their sparse checks.

No, they already have exceptions in some jurisdictions.

[Weetabix]

And I haven't read the new law, but minimum wage is minimum wage - unions can't bargain for work at less than the minimum.
If anything, the state getting everyone $15/hr undercuts union efforts to organize low-budget workers, because the union leeches can't get them anything the state didn't just give them for free, in return for $0 in union dues extorted from their sparse checks.

I might guess they were doing it to reduce the wages that are multiples of minimum to keep those competitive.

[blackeagle603]

Can you say growth in "Grey Market labor?"

There I knew you could.


Can you say "Increased incentives to hire illegals off the books?"

There I knew you could.

[Aesop]

You might find maids or garment district piece-workers to work for less than minimum wage, but you won't find many strong backs outside of Homeless Depot on most days who aren't bargaining for and getting well above minimum.

Whether that holds true when it's $15/hr remains to be seen.

[Langenator]

Of course, when you add on the employer's portion of FICA, workmen's comp contribution, unemployment fund tax, the cost of doing associated IRS paperwork, etc...those illegals probably do cost the employer less than a minimum wage legal worker.

Second and third order effect musing - how much is this going to cost the wages of workers who are currently above minimum wage, and even above the new minimum wage? And if those wages increase, what will that do to the budgets of many, many government entities?

Example: I've been looking at police jobs. Starting salary for a new patrol officer in the places I've looked is in the range of $20-22/hr. Call it $14-15/hr above minimum, or 3x minimum wage, depending on how you want to look at it.

If the minimum wage employees who empty the garbage cans at the city parks are suddenly getting $15/hr, I'm pretty sure the cops, firefighters, EMTs, even the office staff at city hall are going to be asking for pretty substantial increases next time their contract is up for renewal. And I'm just as sure that the budgets won't be able to handle it.

[mekender]

Of course, when you add on the employer's portion of FICA, workmen's comp contribution, unemployment fund tax, the cost of doing associated IRS paperwork, etc...those illegals probably do cost the employer less than a minimum wage legal worker.

Second and third order effect musing - how much is this going to cost the wages of workers who are currently above minimum wage, and even above the new minimum wage? And if those wages increase, what will that do to the budgets of many, many government entities?

Example: I've been looking at police jobs. Starting salary for a new patrol officer in the places I've looked is in the range of $20-22/hr. Call it $14-15/hr above minimum, or 3x minimum wage, depending on how you want to look at it.

If the minimum wage employees who empty the garbage cans at the city parks are suddenly getting $15/hr, I'm pretty sure the cops, firefighters, EMTs, even the office staff at city hall are going to be asking for pretty substantial increases next time their contract is up for renewal. And I'm just as sure that the budgets won't be able to handle it.

Not just that but current minimum wage through $15 an hour currently encompasses... Almost every retail worker below assistant management... Almost every fast food worker below GM... Almost every person that is not certified in auto repair shops... Virtually every call center worker in the US below the team manager level... Almost every IT person that is in their first 5 years in the industry... Etc... And if you expand that number to cover a range from $15 to $25 an hour you cover almost half the working population. All of them are going to be pissed that a jack-off HS student can make the same or slightly less than them mopping bathrooms at the local gas station.

What I didnt know until the other day is some of this interesting stuff:

http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/ ... ax-credit/

http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/ ... mployment/

* 57% of poor families with heads of household ages 18–64 have no workers

* 46% of poor workers have hourly wages above $10.10, and 36% have hourly wages above $12

* if wages were simply raised to $10.10 with no changes to the number of jobs or hours, only 18% of the total increase in incomes would go to poor families, based on 2010–2014 data (Lundstrom forthcoming). The distributional effects look somewhat better at a higher threshold for low income, with 49% of the benefits going to families that have incomes below twice the poverty line. However, 32% would go to families with incomes at least three times the poverty line.

* if we consider raising the minimum wage higher, for example to $12, only 15% of the benefits go to poor families, because other higher-wage workers who would benefit are less likely to be poor. Likewise, 35% would go to families with incomes at least three times the poverty line. With a $15 minimum wage the corresponding figures would be 12% and 38%.

* a 10% increase in the wage floor reduces teen employment by 1%

[Aesop]

Any increase in wage floor makes teens nigh unemployable whatsoever.

Last I looked, for black & Hispanic teens, unemployment runs 60-85%.

At $15/hr, there's no way any teen (other than the boss' kids) is ever going to be considered.
Who's going to hire an under 20 person for $30k/yr?
Even Uncle Sam is only paying them $18.8-25K/yr, for getting shot at.
If you're going to pay swab jockeys and burger flippers that amount, recruitment probably drops to record lows.
Any military pay increase sufficient to stem the hemorrhage of potential recruits busts the budget.

I repeat, this trend will be the Smoot-Hawley Act of the 21st century, and blow up the entire economy.

[Greg]

Any increase in wage floor makes teens nigh unemployable whatsoever.

Last I looked, for black & Hispanic teens, unemployment runs 60-85%.

At $15/hr, there's no way any teen (other than the boss' kids) is ever going to be considered.
Who's going to hire an under 20 person for $30k/yr?
Even Uncle Sam is only paying them $18.8-25K/yr, for getting shot at.
If you're going to pay swab jockeys and burger flippers that amount, recruitment probably drops to record lows.
Any military pay increase sufficient to stem the hemorrhage of potential recruits busts the budget.

I repeat, this trend will be the Smoot-Hawley Act of the 21st century, and blow up the entire economy.

Or just lead to one-time instant 100% inflation. Every price, every wage instantly doubles.

That's what will eventually happen anyway.

[blackeagle603]

The Son&Heir (a Mech Eng student) just got picked up for a Mfg Eng summer internship. It's a US company that makes all manner of RF filters and filter assemblies. He'll be crossing the border daily at Otay Mesa to work in a factory there. I bet this will make that sort of operation all that more competitive.