How I See Election 2016 Shaking Out

[MarkD]

My wife and I were discussing the upcoming election, and here's the possible scenarios I see (in decreasing order of likelihood):

1) Trump wins the popular vote in the Primaries. Super-Delegates/brokered convention deny him his win, decide to nominate Bush or Rubio. Trump goes Independent, splits the R vote (most of whom stay home like the last two times) and Hilary or Bernie walks in with a landslide.

2) Cruz wins the popular primary vote. I don't THINK this will cause a brokered convention, he may not be AS establishment as the RNC would like, but he's not as far off as the Donald. I also don't think Donald will go third party, it's difficult to insist you're running because the people want you after the people show they don't. I think Cruz beats either Sanders or Clinton like a rented mule (although I think there may be unprecedented turnout by either young people (Sanders) or women (Hilary), just like blacks for Obama. I suspect more the youth/Sanders than women/Hilary, LOTS of women HATE Hilary).

I don't see Trump bowing out if he wins the primaries.

Now some interesting possible scenarios:

Sanders makes a promise to appoint Barrack to the Supreme Court if elected, or worse Michelle. This guarantees an indictment of Hilary to get her out of the way. Does this bring up an anyone-but-Sanders movement?

Sanders wins the D primaries, and Trump wins the R's. Is the Stupid Party stupid enough to not push the Capitalist (Crony or otherwise) vs Socialist race, or do they follow thru Scenario 1 above.

Scalia's death makes this election REAL important (assuming the R's keep their promise to block Obama's nomination). We may not trust who Trump would appoint, but we KNOW what Clinton or Sanders would do. Suppose we end up with a promise by Sanders to appoint one of the Obamas and Trump to appoint Cruz? Hmmmmmm.

Suppose something happens to, say, Ginsberg before the election?

[Vonz90]

1) Trump wins the popular vote in the Primaries. Super-Delegates/brokered convention deny him his win, decide to nominate Bush or Rubio. ?

The GOP does not have super delegates. That is a DEM thing.

All GOP delegates are elected in caucuses or primaries and are tied to whomever they were elected for for the first ballet unless whomever they were elected for specifically frees their delegates to vote for whomever they want.

[MarkD]

1) Trump wins the popular vote in the Primaries. Super-Delegates/brokered convention deny him his win, decide to nominate Bush or Rubio. ?

The GOP does not have super delegates. That is a DEM thing.

All GOP delegates are elected in caucuses or primaries and are tied to whomever they were elected for for the first ballet unless whomever they were elected for specifically frees their delegates to vote for whomever they want.

Duh, yeah, sorry about that. There's still be rumblings about a brokered convention if The Donald wins.

[Weetabix]

My daughters watched the debate and were extremely turned off by The Donald. I'm kind of hoping he did that to a lot of others as well.

[BDK]

Cruz is HATED by the party hacks. Which is why it will be vastly entertaining for him to end up VP.

Hillary has people a bit scared. If the dem front runner has any brains, they'd make Jim Webb their VP, which will neutralize Cruz in a debate/whomever else would be VP. (Not a job Trump would take.)

But, to get a Webb they'd need to become much more conservative

[Vonz90]

Cruz is HATED by the party hacks. Which is why it will be vastly entertaining for him to end up VP.

Hillary has people a bit scared. If the dem front runner has any brains, they'd make Jim Webb their VP, which will neutralize Cruz in a debate/whomever else would be VP. (Not a job Trump would take.)

But, to get a Webb they'd need to become much more conservative

I think it is looking like Cruz or Trumpelstiltskin for the nomination. that said, if Rubio gets it a Rubio -Cruz ticket would be pretty strong.

[Mike OTDP]

My take:

I see a definite potential for a brokered convention. Trump will get to the convention with the most delegates, but quite possibly not enough to win outright, it'll take some serious dickering to arrive at a ticket. No idea how it falls out, and I don't discount the potential for a None Of The Above candidate to emerge. Trump will threaten a third party run, but won't do it unless the chicanery is brazen. He may well be the VP nominee...and will take it.

As for the Democrats, that's where the fun starts. Clinton has her head in a noose, to the tune of multiple felony charges. Sanders is a rabid leftst nutjob. I'm betting the Dems look hard for a way to slip Biden in at the last minute. This will enrage Sanders' supporters, many will drop out.

If Bloomberg runs, it's great news for the Republicans.

Endgame - This will be the nastiest campaign in living memory. The Dems and their Propaganda Press allies will do their usual lies, but both Trump and Cruz have shown a willingness to fight rare among Republicans. I think the Republican ticket wins by a significant margin.

[Precision]

My take.

The Republican ticket wins, assuming Trump doesn't go third party and possible even if he does.

Hillary is going nowhere fast (unfortunately not even to prison). Bernie is a non-starter for roughly half of the country, so I don't see much chance of him if Hillary collapses / gets arrested. I see Bernie as a distraction to make it LOOK like the democrats are not handing the nomination to hillary.

If it ends up as a Bernie or Biden VS Trump, Cruz or Rubio -- the Retardicans win.

I am NOT a fan of the Trump, could may be stomach pulling the lever for Rubio; but would actually vote for Cruz. Based on that alone, it will come down to Trump or Rubio.

Who I would like to see. Cruz/ Allen West or Cruz / Trey Goudy or Cruz / Mike Lee. Not holding my breath.

[BDK]

Cruz/Gowdy would be... Highly entertaining. Quite possibly a foreign policy disaster, and I'm not sure what happens if you put two gunners in the same box, but the rhetoric would be superb, if excessively vicious.

[Netpackrat]

As much as it pains me to say it, if Cruz gets the nomination I think he'd be well advised to pick somebody who leans RINO as his running mate, in order to keep the establishment/moderate types on the reservation.