CRULazyGutlessSonofabitchUUZ!

[blackeagle603]

Cruz gained far more in far more states than he lost in NY with his NY values comment.

Strategery. He's got it.

[g-man]

So... Trump wins NY, which is no surprise. but he does lose 3 delegates to Kasich, of all people. Cruz didn't help himself with the 'NY Values' comments, but it's neither here nor there at this point. The question remains: based on where we are, since it appears we're heading to a contested convention, WTF now?

Cruz on the 2nd or 3rd ballot.

Trump is not going to win the nomination and knows it.

From your lips to God's ears. I'm just not sure of what 'the establishment' may end up doing, or who they may throw in with.

[Mike OTDP]

The way I see the race, there are four candidates: Trump, Cruz, Some Loser, and None Of The Above (NOTA).

There are three critical delegate counts. 1,237 and you're nominated. Around 1,075, and you only need to pick up Kasich's or Rubio's delegates to win. Below ~950, you're done.

Fox News' estimate this evening was that Trump would come up short by around 70 delegates. My back-of-the envelope math says this would put Cruz at around 975. Meaning he needs both Kasich and Rubio to back him.

I think that if Trump doesn't win on the first ballot, he's in deep trouble. If he fails on the second, he's toast. For Cruz, his shot is on the second ballot...and if he fails on the third, he's toast.

Which brings up Some Loser. Someone who Trump and Cruz already beat, or who lost to Romney The Loser in 2012. This is a sure way to shatter the party.

But there's also None Of The Above. Governor Scott of Florida. General Mattis. Expect this to be a major topic of debate if the convention is brokered.

My bet? 30% Trump, 30% Cruz, 30% NOTA, 10% Loser.

[Netpackrat]

Nobody needs Rubio or Kasich to back them. After the first ballot, they don't have any more influence over "their" delegates than anybody else does. If Trump doesn't get to the magic number for an outright win, then he's done. The first ballot will be his high point.

[Vonz90]

An in depth analysis, but it will be Cruz.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/4 ... es-nothing

[blackeagle603]

Cruz is out at state conventions working the delegate nomination process to get Cruz supporters in the mix. That way when they are released to vote on the 2nd or 3rd ballots per different state rules they can come to him. Just in the last couple days news: working NC state convention, already cleaned up in CO. AR delegates getting Cruz'd too.

[Vonz90]

Cruz is out at state conventions working the delegate nomination process to get Cruz supporters in the mix. That way when they are released to vote on the 2nd or 3rd ballots per different state rules they can come to him. Just in the last couple days news: working NC state convention, already cleaned up in CO. AR delegates getting Cruz'd too.

In saw something recently that Cruz will have more delegates than Trump out of Missouri even though Trump narrowly won the state. Not sure if true but would not surprise me.

[Aesop]

The way I see the race, there are four candidates: Trump, Cruz, Some Loser, and None Of The Above (NOTA).

There are three critical delegate counts. 1,237 and you're nominated. Around 1,075, and you only need to pick up Kasich's or Rubio's delegates to win. Below ~950, you're done.

Fox News' estimate this evening was that Trump would come up short by around 70 delegates. My back-of-the envelope math says this would put Cruz at around 975. Meaning he needs both Kasich and Rubio to back him.

I think that if Trump doesn't win on the first ballot, he's in deep trouble. If he fails on the second, he's toast. For Cruz, his shot is on the second ballot...and if he fails on the third, he's toast.

Which brings up Some Loser. Someone who Trump and Cruz already beat, or who lost to Romney The Loser in 2012. This is a sure way to shatter the party.

But there's also None Of The Above. Governor Scott of Florida. General Mattis. Expect this to be a major topic of debate if the convention is brokered.

My bet? 30% Trump, 30% Cruz, 30% NOTA, 10% Loser.

No, it doesn't work like that.

Trump loses on the first ballot. Period.
So does everyone else.

After the first ballot, every delegate is free to go where they want.
A lot of delegates are going to Cruz.
Nobody is going to Trump after the first ballot. (Whatever he gets one the first go around is almost certainly his high-water mark. 66% of the party hates him, his guts, and the horse he rode to town on. He is the only national candidate with negatives in all demographic categories as high or higher than Shrillary.)
Or Kasich.
Or Rubio.
What it comes down to is how much horsetrading it takes to get Cruz over the 1237 hump, and on which ballot.
Second, or maybe third.
After three with no victor, it becomes a shitshow, and all bets are off.
If Cruz elects to balance the ticket by naming Walker, Kasich or someone else less conservative and less damaged as a running mate, it should be essentially a done deal.

If, despite the odds, some other nobody no show is the nominee, I'm staying home.
If, despite all common sense, Trump pulls it out after the first ballot, I will fax a copy of my democrat registration card to the head of the RNC, and send money to their nominee for the fall election.

The only reason Trump is in play whatsoever this year is because we had 12 other jackholes, at least 9 or 10 of whom should never have been accorded the time of day, and all of whom stuck around long beyond any hope of doing anything but fucking up the primaries to this point.
Well played, assholes. Now we have the 40% Candidate.

That Trump even got more than a courtesy laugh since last spring is entirely due to Bitch McConjob, John Bonehead, and Quisling Ryan in the first place. Bonehead is gone, but the other two jackholes need to be literally hounded out of office by the Republican National Committee*, at any expense necessary, even at the peril of losing their seats for some time to come. The have been tried, and found seriously wanting.


*(After which the RNC panjandrums should all go home, draw a warm bath, settle into it, and slit their wrists too.)

[Mike OTDP]

The only reason Trump is in play whatsoever this year is because we had 12 other jackholes, at least 9 or 10 of whom should never have been accorded the time of day, and all of whom stuck around long beyond any hope of doing anything but fucking up the primaries to this point.
Well played, assholes. Now we have the 40% Candidate.

Agree 100%. The GOP Establishment blew it big time...it should have come as no surprise that there would be a primary fight between a Conservative and an Establishment standard-bearer. But instead of winnowing the field of Establishment candidates, they let it fester...which allowed Trump to "win" a bunch of states with a third of the vote.

Having said that, I remain convinced there is one chance in three of None Of The Above being the nominee. I'm betting on either GEN Mattis, or Governor Scott of Florida.

[Aesop]

If that happens, the GOP nominee will win 27% of the Republican voters, and 10% of all voters, and they will, deservedly, become the 21st C. Whig Party.