CRULazyGutlessSonofabitchUUZ!

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Vonz90
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Re: CRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!

Post by Vonz90 »

ND is a bit hard to read, but it looks like Cruz won at least 18 of the 25 delegates with at most only one for sure Trump delegate and several uncommitted.

If Cruz wins as expect tomorrow in Wisconsin, that will give him 3 of the last 4 states. (Maybe you could call it 4 of the last 5 if you count flipping the delegates for Louisiana)

Of course NY is next and they are polling with tRump well in front. It does look like his numbers have fallen off about 10-15 points from their peak a month ago in NY, but remainder is split closely between Cruz and Kasich, so I don't think that will work out well. It is a closed primary, so I would expect tRump to under perform his polls, but not enough to swing it. It is proportional delegates, so both Cruz and Kasich will likely pick up delegates. Of course the momentum from Wisconsin may alter things.

HTRN - I expect you to vote enough times to swing this thing for Cruz!
Aesop
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Re: CRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!

Post by Aesop »

If the asswagons at the RNC try to foist Ryan on the party at the convention, the GOP will become the 21st C. Whigs, and they'll get less than 10% of the vote in the general election.

And probably split into two or three parties overnight.

That is shoving a live hand grenade up your butt with the pin pulled to do a circumcision.
It's a one-time thing, and the results won't be what you were trying for.

The Trumpkin candidacy is going to prove the undoing of the GOP, win or lose, and the rank and file are only just starting to realize how close they came to being the date-raped prom date for flirting with him.
"There are four types of homicide: felonious, accidental, justifiable, and praiseworthy." -Ambrose Bierce, "The Devil's Dictionary"
MarkD
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Re: CRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!

Post by MarkD »

Aesop wrote:If the asswagons at the RNC try to foist Ryan on the party at the convention, the GOP will become the 21st C. Whigs, and they'll get less than 10% of the vote in the general election.

And probably split into two or three parties overnight.

That is shoving a live hand grenade up your butt with the pin pulled to do a circumcision.
It's a one-time thing, and the results won't be what you were trying for.

The Trumpkin candidacy is going to prove the undoing of the GOP, win or lose, and the rank and file are only just starting to realize how close they came to being the date-raped prom date for flirting with him.

Kinda what I was thinking over the weekend: Either the R party ceases to exist and a new Conservative party forms (which I find unlikely), or it splits and we become Great Britain 2.0 with umpteen parties trying to form a coalition (especially if the D party fractures in a similar manner if Biden steps in after Hilary gets fitted for an orange jumpsuit).

Hey, it's hard to get anything done with all those parties vying for power, which is a feature, not a bug.
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Vonz90
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Re: CRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!

Post by Vonz90 »

3rd parties or multiple parties are not possible for first past the post systems as we have.

In any case, it does not matter. Cruz will be the nominee and will win in the fall. He is a pretty good candidate, but tRump is falling apart and Hitler-rat was genetically engineered to be the worst candidate since Dukakis.
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Kommander
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Re: CRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!

Post by Kommander »

Vonz90 wrote:3rd parties or multiple parties are not possible for first past the post systems as we have.
England has a first past the post system too yet the have plenty of parties, though they are also dealing with issues with their system. I think the reason we ended up with two parties is not so much the first past the post, although that's part of it, but that we have a separate election for the chief executive, as opposed to having a prime minister.
Vonz90 wrote:In any case, it does not matter. Cruz will be the nominee and will win in the fall. He is a pretty good candidate, but tRump is falling apart and Hitler-rat was genetically engineered to be the worst candidate since Dukakis.
Are you serious? Have you actually looked at any of the polls? I know we should not trust them 100% but they tend to be telling. For two election cycles I've watched many on this board fall for the "Nobody I know is voting for Nixon" trap. When you sit down and look at the demographics, look at the electoral college, and look at the polls it become blatantly obvious that Hillary will win. If, and that's a big IF, Cruz ends up as the nominee much of the media will paint him as a gay hating misogynistic neanderthal and in the 5 or so states that matter enough people will be worried that Voting Cruz will make them "hateful", will want to vote in a woman as president in the name of history or whatever that they will vote for Clinton.

This of course assumes that Trump does not decide to do a third party run. Even as a write in he will eviscerate the core of the Republican vote base, resulting in President [strike]Wilson[/strike] Hillary. Pretty much the only way to avoid Hillary as president is sitting on the FBI directors desk. We will see what he does with it.
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Vonz90
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Re: CRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!

Post by Vonz90 »

The polls actually looks pretty good for Cruz vs Hillary so I don't know where you are coming from there. Anything could happen of course, but the big issue Republicans have had is with women and women hate Hillary (73% negative in the latest poll I've seen). Minorities don't give a rat's ass about her otherwise and she will not get the turnout that Obama got. This is a very winnable election.

If Trump goes third party that will probably make things interesting but we would have to see where that ends. My take is that he will not because he doesn't have the jack to front the money if he doesn't have the party backing. That is a guess thought but considering that his team has already leaked that he didn't intend to get the nomination anyway, I think it is likely accurate.
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Vonz90
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Re: CRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!

Post by Vonz90 »

Just looking at the RCP average and it has Hillary +3 which is less that the margin of error. Considering her name recognition advantage that is very positive for Cruz.
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Kommander
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Re: CRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!

Post by Kommander »

OK I'll admit that the polls are much closer than they were when I last checked them. However that still leaves and uphill climb for the republicans electorally. I ginned up this map that shows the fun possibility of a tied race.
BDK
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Re: CRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!

Post by BDK »

Can't imagine the GOP being crazy enough to give it to Clinton in that case - as I recall, the House of Representatives decides
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NVGdude
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Re: CRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!

Post by NVGdude »

Vonz90 wrote: Of course NY is next and they are polling with tRump well in front. It does look like his numbers have fallen off about 10-15 points from their peak a month ago in NY, but remainder is split closely between Cruz and Kasich, so I don't think that will work out well. It is a closed primary, so I would expect tRump to under perform his polls, but not enough to swing it. It is proportional delegates, so both Cruz and Kasich will likely pick up delegates. Of course the momentum from Wisconsin may alter things.

NY is proportional by congressional district, with a 50% WTA and 20% threshold. If Cruz or Kasich pick up anything it will be single digits. Of course after that, things look a lot worse for the hairpiece of doom.

It's going to come down to California.
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